Thursday Night Football picks and prop bets: The streaking Patriots head to Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons, for the most part, don't beat good teams.

Sure, they handled a Jameis Winston-less Saints team in Week 9, but New Orleans is pretty much the apex of Falcons' fandom the past three years. Take them out of the picture and Atlanta has exactly one win over a team with 10+ victories since its last playoff berth in 2017.

That's a good sign for a surging New England Patriots team eager to prove last year's losing record was an aberration and not the beginning of a post-Tom Brady descent. The Pats have turned a 1-3 start into a 6-4 record, pushing their way into the thick of the playoff hunt and only a half-game behind the Bills in the AFC East. Atlanta offers a chance to add a little extra power behind that momentum before massive showdowns with Tennessee and Buffalo in Weeks 12 and 13, respectively.

The Falcons have much more tenuous playoff hopes. They came into Week 10 as the seventh and final seed in the NFC, then got boat-raced by the Cowboys in a 43-3 bloodletting. A win over New England wouldn't just provide hollow vindication after Super Bowl 51, it would also keep Atlanta's playoff hopes alive in a conference that reasonably runs five deep with legitimate contenders.

Can Matt Ryan get back on track against a peaking Patriot defense? Or will New England's mastery over Atlanta continue for at least another year?

Let’s talk about it. All odds via Tipico.

Why the Patriots (-290) will win

28-3 gets all the recognition, but New England hasn't lost to Atlanta since all the way back in 1998. The 2021 version of the Patriots isn't quite the juggernaut of 2001-2019, but they're starting to look pretty dang good.

Mac Jones, the fifth rookie quarterback selected in this year's draft, is the best first-year passer in the game. His confidence and ability to find windows downfield have increased each week since his NFL debut, culminating in some absolutely beautiful throws in a 45-7 rout of the Browns last week.

Now he gets to face the Falcons, who rank 30th in passing defense and just gave up 317 passing yards to the Cowboys. Windows will be open downfield, and a finally-healthy offensive line -- a difference maker in Week 10 -- can buy him the time to find those players while limiting the drive-stalling sacks that stand out as Jones' biggest weakness. Atlanta ranks dead last in both pressure rate and sacks this season.

Even if the offense struggles, the Patriot defense has been playing up to the "Boogeymen" moniker that followed Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins back to Foxborough. The Pats have given up 13 total points the last two weeks and held opponents under 300 total yards in three of their last four games. They'll have an opportunity to keep that excellence intact against a Falcons team that won't have Calvin Ridley in the lineup due to personal reasons and may not have former Patriot Cordarrelle Patterson, who is a game-time decision due to an ankle injury.

Why the Falcons (+225) will win

Every single victory the Patriots have over the Falcons since 1998 came with one man behind center: Tom Brady. He, famously, is no longer in New England.

Jones has been good as a rookie, but he's not Touchdown Tom. He's vulnerable to first-year mistakes and his risk aversion often leaves him holding the ball too long in the pocket or checking down for modest gains instead of pushing the ball downfield. That will create opportunities the Atlanta defense didn't have last week against Dak Prescott.

That'll cut a path for Ryan to regain his bearings in the middle of a revival season. The veteran had posted a 106.1 passer rating and averaged 282 yards and more than two passing touchdowns per game in the 4-2 stretch that propped the Falcons up as a potential Wild Card team. The Cowboys put an end to that, but it's clear the 2016 MVP is still capable of big performances. He'll have to rely on Kyle Pitts -- who'll likely be covered by a cornerback he's both faster and bigger than -- to lift his passing game and deliver a win Thursday night.

Also, it'd be great if Mike Davis could somehow wake up and regain his 2020 form. The veteran was one of the league's most valuable runners in relief of Christian McCaffrey last year. This year his yards after contact rate is down by nearly a full yard (2.4 to 1.6) and his broken tackle rate is the worst of his career. The Patriots only rank 13th in rush defense DVOA, so it'll be paramount for Davis to strike at that relative weakness if Patterson isn't full strength.

DFS punt plays who could lift you to glory

Players available for $4,000 or less in DraftKings showdowns.

• K Younghoe Koo ($4,000)
• WR Tajae Sharpe ($3,600)
• TE Jonnu Smith ($2,400)

Hooooo boy, these punt plays stink. In the four weeks leading up to last Sunday's blowout loss to the Cowboys, Koo was averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game. He is one of Atlanta's most reliable players, which is not a sad statement to make about a kicker, no sir.

Sharpe started the last two games for the Falcons and has two targets to show for it. He's probably useless, but he'll likely play more than 50 percent of the snaps and could be a viable safety valve if Pitts and Olamide Zaccheaus get stifled by New England's secondary.

You're going to want solid exposure to the Pats' passing game, given Atlanta's rough defense and Jones' solid play. When it comes to punt plays, that limits you to Smith, N'Keal Harry, or Gunner Olszewski. Smith might not play due to the shoulder injury that kept him out of last week's romp, but if he does there's plenty of room for him to haul in short-range passes in front of the Falcons' linebacking corps, who've generally struggled in coverage.

The prop bets I like

Monday results: 1-2 (.333). Season to date: 50-37 (.575)

What did we learn Monday? That Jimmy Garoppolo and Matthew Stafford went through some kind of Freaky Friday brain switch that sank my passing props AND my pick. The NFL's been wild the last three weeks, man.

Damien Harris ANYTIME touchdown scorer. A different prop bet than usual, but Harris will be back in the lineup for the Pats and has scored a touchdown in each of his last five games. Atlanta's rush defense ranks 22nd in the league and has given up a rushing touchdown in seven of nine games this season. Pair this with Harris OVER 50.5 rushing yards if you're feeling a Pats win with lots of second half rushes.

Kendrick Bourne OVER 2.5 receptions. Bourne's been a vital safety valve for Jones as he looks downfield more often. He's had at least three catches in his last four games and seven of his last eight. Pair this one with OVER 33.5 receiving yards, as Bourne's run-after-catch ability (seven yards per reception) make him a dangerous playmaker even on passes near the line of scrimmage.

Matt Ryan OVER 20.5 completions. In the version of this game that plays in my head, the Falcons trail and have very little to rely on in the running game. Ryan's gonna have to throw a lot, and while the Patriots can stifle him, 21 completions is a reasonable number for a veteran who's hit that mark in all but two games this season.

Last-minute extra bet! Kyle Dugger OVER 3.5 solo tackles. Dugger's developed into the next great link in a chain of Patriot safeties, less than two years after being drafted out of Division II Lenoir-Rhyne. This is a late addition, but with Cordarrelle Patterson scratched there will probably be a lot of low-risk dump-offs near the line of scrimmage -- exactly the place Dugger can come up and lay some lumber.

And here's the line I'm not totally sold on and kinda/sorta recommending (11-4 on the season):

Olamide Zaccheaus UNDER 33.5 receiving yards. He's only hit 33+ once this season. The only thing keeping this from being a formal recommendation is my aforementioned belief Ryan's gonna have to throw a lot.

My pick

Well, my picks have been abjectly terrible lately ... but not so bad I'm second-guessing Bill Belichick against a team that's only won four games against teams with winning records since 2017. Atlanta will beat New England at some point this millennium, but it's not gonna be in 2021. Patriots keep rolling.

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